Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Swine Flu Scare: Stopping the Pandemic

India swine flu death toll rises to eight, while two cases carrying the (A) HiNi deadliest virus are detected in Bangladesh. The swine flu deaths have stoked fears over the expected influx of millions from around the world to the Muslim holy cities of Makkah Mukarrama and Medina Munawara, in western Saudi Arabia. Millions of vaccine doses are likely to be received in Saudi Arabia. The vaccines would be primarily given to Saudi citizens residing in Saudi Arabia where already 695 have already perished. The virus may fizzle out after a long time-unless the global warning system is strengthened.

International health officials who had been on high alert since reports of a new influenza virus first surfaced in late April, are not in a position to relax as death news is percolating from all over the globe. WHO chief says it will be quite sometime to get out of the woods. So are the thousands of educational centres closures and the press conferences with tall talks about hand-washing much ado about not that much? Unfortunately not. We're still in the early days of the HiNi outbreak and influenza viruses are notoriously unpredictable.

Right now the new disease seems to be more dangerous than the seasonal flu. The genetic code of the virus lacks key mutations that made past pandemic causing viruses so deadly-just as the virus that caused the catastrophic 1918 pandemic did. This is a situation than can evolve and if it does turn severe in next winter. This is something the world will have to jump on. The reality is that while the US and others in Geneva and the rest of the world deserve kudos for their comprehensive response to the new flu virus, HiNi is true test of our mettle but a warning shot. Or a wakeup call; not one more snooze alarm. HiNi makes clear how vulnerable our interconnected globe as a global village is to emerging epidemic diseases. As a result of jet travel and international trade a new pathogen managed to seed itself in more than 40 countries in less than a month. But while globalisation has its liabilities, it is also strength, because it gives us the tools to midwife a truly international disease surveillance system.

Shortage of doctors
And a potent threat of a pandemic should remind us that we must fill the gaps in our creaky healthcare systems: during an infectious disease outbreak, everyone will be at great risk. But Bangladesh health services are hamstrung by doctor shortages and health service for rural populace is still limping but the authorities never tire of delivering lectures whereas people do not want lectures a nauseam but a focus on better, effective health service in the country. Seemingly rudderless health ministry fails to allay people's worries. Indian swine flu fatalities call for stricter screening at Bangladesh land ports but the government albeit tightrope walking is busy with fallacies of Tipaimukh and Russian nuclear plant! The likely damage can still be undone. We live in one world, with one health. Global cost of severe flu pandemic is $3 trillion, as estimated by the World Bank.

Flu shot production
We missed HiNi when it was just swine flu because we weren't looking for it. And we didn't see anything that could tip us off. There was only scattered surveillance in North America. The virus began from Acapulco street in Mexico. According to experts, for building a current better vaccine, genetics and molecular medicine offer a more efficient method, cutting vaccine production from months to weeks. Presently, Flu shots take 6 months to produce, since they require growing, collecting and testing millions of viruses from chicken eggs.
Viruses are harvested in fertilized eggs and then purified with chemicals for human use. Western scientists are developing needle-free-and less painful-ways to deliver vaccine. To conclude, as a global community, we are only as strong as our weakest link. The UN's Ban Ki-moon states the world will be safer with the present endeavours made by the scientists to battle the flu, and there are chances of success. But we Bangladeshis are mired in material lives and ever ready to engage in the pantomime of pretending to be unaware and safer.